#COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY OUTLOOK EMAIL SETTINGS FULL#
Remember an average hurricane season includes 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.Ĭolorado State University will release its full quantitative outlook on April 7. 10% chance of an ACE Index of approximately 50, which would typically mean 6-9 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, and 0-1 major hurricanes.25% chance of an ACE Index of approximately 80, which would typically mean 9-12 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes.25% chance of an ACE Index of approximately 170, which would typically mean 15-18 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, and 4-5 major hurricanes.40% chance of an ACE Index of approximately 130, which would typically mean 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes.A La Niña would lead to less wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean, which could translate to more storms. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is currently forecasting our current La Niña to remind this winter, before transitioning closer to its neutral phase (No La Niña or El Niño). CSU uses the AMO in combination with the forecast ENSO Index, which is our La Niña and El Niño.
AMO is defined as the natural variability of sea surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure in the North Atlantic. The first is the strength of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). We haven’t had a below-normal season since 2015 when the ACE Index measured 63.ĬSU uses two weather parameters to make forecasts for the potential total ACE Index in a given season. For example, the 2021 season had an ACE Index of 142, which is above normal, while the even busier 2020 season had an ACE Index of 180. Total ACE is a way meteorologists measure how busy a hurricane season is.Īn ACE Index above 126 is considered above normal, while an ACE Index below 73 is considered below normal. ACE is a named storm's potential for wind and storm surge destruction. Their 2022 outlook is based on probability scenarios for a weather index called, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Despite the number of names being above normal, the season was relatively average in the number of hurricanes (7) and the number of major hurricanes (4). The 2021 season was very active with 21 named storms, running out of names for the second year in a row.
The 2021 hurricane season may have ended just over a week ago, but Colorado State University is already looking ahead to the 2022 season.
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